When asked whether they consider the US to be a superpower in 2030, 61 % say yes while 24 % say no. Interestingly in our survey of Chinese adults, 60 % agree that the US will be a superpower while the Russia population is a lot more cynical on the role of the US (only 24 % see the US as a super power in the future).
Across all 37 countries, 63 % agree that China will be a superpower by 2030, with 97 % of respondents in China agreeing and 54 % of Americans accepting the fact that China will remain a superpower by 2030.
It is perhaps Russia which is most interesting in that opinion is evenly divided. Despite President Putin increasing Russia’s footprint across much of the world and building deeper relationships with non-Western blocs such beyond the EU/US, 41 % of all countries surveyed accept that they will remain a superpower by 2030, while 42 % saying they will not. Italians (at 75 %) are most convinced Russia will remain a superpower by 2030 (more so than Russians themselves with 66 % agreeing).
Beyond these three countries there is nobody else competing seriously – even the potential might of the EU bloc is questioned with only 33 % saying they will be a superpower, 48 % saying they will not. In arguably the most powerful country in Europe, Germans do not think the EU will be a superpower by 2030 (24 % say they will, 60 % say they will not).
The Impact of US foreign policy
Looking a little deeper at attitudes towards US foreign policy specifically and whether or not our sample of N= 37,321adults see this as having a positive or negative effect on their country, overall, the pendulum is tipped slightly to a negative impact (36 %) rather than a positive impact (30 %). It is no surprise to see that Iran (64 % negative impact) and Russia (58 %) view US foreign policy most negatively. Additionally, there are many explanations as to why results from Kosovo (71 % positive impact), Philippines (60 %) and Ukraine (51 %) are most positive towards US foreign policy in their country.
Gallup International asked the same question twenty years ago. The countries showing the largest increases in perceptions of favourability towards the impact of US foreign policy on their country include Ukraine (+36 % over twenty years), India (+26 %), Argentina (+26 %), Malaysia (+17 %) and Poland (+17 %). Conversely, those countries where attitudes have deteriorated the strongest are Bulgaria (+21 % over twenty years), Georgia (+18 %) and Austria (+13 %).
Michael Nitsche, President of Gallup International comments: Two global superpowers continue to dominate the competitive space, while opinions are lot more divided on Russia. President Trump undoubtedly would like to see the US a lot further ahead in this fight for global supremacy and may take the fight on a lot more to his competitors.
Note to Editors
Sample Size and Mode of Field Work:
A total of 39,760 persons were interviewed globally. In each country a representative sample of around 1000 men and women was interviewed during October – December 2024 either face to face, via telephone or online. The margin of error for the survey is between ±3 – 5 % at 95 % confidence level.
