From 2003 to 2025
How Iraqi Public Opinion Has Shifted Over the last Two Decades

By Rand Dagher and Tamara Demasi

This week marks the anniversary of the U.S.-led war in Iraq. More than twenty years after the U.S. invasion and the fall of Baghdad on April 9, 2003, Iraq’s political and social landscape continues to evolve, shaped by moments of violence, resilience, and reform. While the early post-2003 years were marked by deep instability and widespread public distrust, public opinion data collected over the past 12 months shows gradual but measurable improvement in national sentiment, particularly in the form of increased confidence and growing support for the current government.

This article draws on two key points of comparison: findings from one of our first nationwide public opinion surveys conducted in November 2003, and the latest data gathered over the past year. By examining changes in public attitudes over time, the article offers insight into how Iraqis have responded to the political, security, and social developments that have defined the last two decades.

The period following 2003 saw the dismantling of Iraq’s central authority and the eruption of sectarian tensions. Violence peaked in 2006, with bombings, assassinations, and forced displacement tearing apart mixed communities. Millions of Iraqis were displaced internally or forced to migrate to neighboring countries and beyond. In the years that followed, power struggles, fragile institutions, and regional interference continued to undermine public trust.

By 2013, large-scale Sunni protests erupted in Ramadi, Fallujah, Samarra, Mosul, and Kirkuk, fueled by anger toward the central government and feelings of marginalization. These protests were later hijacked by ISIS, which had already gained ground in Syria following the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. The group’s expansion into Iraq culminated in the fall of Mosul in 2014, marking one of the most devastating chapters in Iraq’s modern history. ISIS’s takeover brought mass displacement, destruction of infrastructure, and widespread trauma.

The inability of successive Iraqi governments to resolve critical issues such as unemployment, failing public services, and systemic corruption fueled widespread public frustration. This growing discontent culminated in the Tishreen Movement, or October protests of 2019, a large-scale, youth-led uprising that exposed the deep structural weaknesses of Iraq’s political system. The protests ultimately led to the resignation of then-Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi.

Despite these setbacks, the post-ISIS years have seen attempts to rebuild and reform. In recent years, particularly under the leadership of Prime Minister Al-Sudani, public sentiment appears to be stabilizing. While challenges remain, new data suggests that a significant number of Iraqis are more optimistic about the direction of the country, and confidence in governance has improved modestly across various segments of society.

Public concerns

In a nationwide survey conducted by IIACSS in November 2003 with a sample of 1,300 respondents, nearly 60 % of Iraqis reported feeling unsafe in their own neighborhoods, reflecting the widespread insecurity that followed the fall of the previous regime and the ensuing violence. When the same question was asked again in 2024, that number had dropped significantly, with only 10 % reporting moderate to high levels of feeling unsafe.

The significant decline in the perception of insecurity reflects a clear shift in how Iraqis view their personal safety. This change can be attributed to several factors, including the strengthening of Iraq’s post-2003 security forces, Where in May 2003, the Coalition Provisional Authority officially disbanded the Iraqi military, security, and intelligence infrastructure of the former regime, creating an initial power vacuum and contributing to widespread instability. Over time, however, the recovery of territory from ISIS and efforts to rebuild local governance contributed to gradual improvements. While security has improved, persistent challenges such as corruption and political fragmentationcontinue to shape public trust.

Another striking comparison across the two decades comes from the shift in what Iraqis perceive as their country’s most pressing problems. In 2003, respondents were asked: “What is your opinion about the most urgent issues facing your community currently?” The overwhelming majority pointed to security as the dominant concern, an unsurprising result given the collapse of law and order at that time. However, as seen in Graph 2, this reality has evolved. In our January-2025 nationwide survey, where respondents were asked a similarly phrased question “What do you feel is the most serious problem facing our country today?” the top concerns were no longer tied to physical safety. Instead, unemployment now leads the list, followed closely by economic hardship and corruption.

This evolution in public concern reflects a deeper transition in Iraq’s post-conflict landscape. While security remains important, it no longer dominates the national psyche as it once did. Instead, economic anxieties have become the foremost concern, fueled by a shrinking middle class, a bloated yet stagnant public sector, limited opportunities in the private sector, and the mounting pressures of a volatile global economy.

These challenges are particularly severe among Iraq’s youth, many of whom are highly educated yet unable to find jobs that match their skills. This disconnect has led to growing frustration, as an increasing number of young professionals are either unemployed or working in low-skilled positions far below their qualifications resulting in a widespread sense of economic disenchantment and underutilization of human capital.

The contrast between Graph 1 and Graph 2 encapsulates this broader shift in national sentiment: from fear of violence to frustration over livelihood, a crucial insight for understanding Iraq’s future policy priorities and the expectations of its citizens today, compared to 22 years ago.

Country’s direction

One of the core questions that IIACSS has consistently tracked since 2003 is: “Do you think Iraq is heading in the right or wrong direction?” This question serves as a vital barometer of public sentiment—capturing how Iraqis perceive the country’s overall direction across political, security, economic, and social dimensions.

In 2004, shortly after the fall of the former regime, many Iraqis expressed optimism hopeful for a democratic transition, improved public services, and national recovery. However, this optimism began to erode by 2007, following the outbreak of sectarian violence in 2006 and the partial withdrawal of U.S. troops. Confidence plummeted, with only 45 % of Iraqis believing the country was on the right track.
By 2016, at the height of the ISIS conflict, optimism reached a low point, just 14 % felt Iraq was moving in the right direction, reflecting widespread frustration fueled by insecurity, institutional collapse, and economic hardship.

In a major shift, public attitudes have improved significantly in recent years. In February 2024, for the first time since 2004, more than half of Iraqis (over 50 %) believed the country was heading in the right direction, marking a symbolic and meaningful milestone. This trend continued into early 2025, with 52 % expressing the same belief. The rise in optimism is largely attributed to improved security, investments in infrastructure, more balanced foreign relations, and a period of relative political stability though concerns over corruption and economic reform remain prevalent.

Confidence in government

As part of our continued tracking of Iraqi public sentiment, confidence in the central government has become one of the most closely watched indicators. In our most recent survey, 55 % of Iraqis said they had confidence in their government—a steady level compared to previous waves, but a significant increase compared to where public trust stood just a few years ago.

As part of our continued tracking of Iraqi public sentiment, confidence in the central government has become one of the most closely watched indicators. In our most recent survey, 55 % of Iraqis said they had confidence in their government—a steady level compared to previous waves, but a significant increase compared to where public trust stood just a few years ago.

This trend is striking when placed in a global context. OECD data from November 2023 shows that only 39 % of respondents across 30 member countries reported high or moderate trust in their governments. Iraq’s higher level of trust stands out, suggesting a shift in how citizens are responding to recent improvements in governance, service delivery, and the government’s role in restoring a sense of normalcy after decades of crisis.

It is worth noting that this improvement in public perception does not signal a full resolution of Iraq’s challenges. Corruption, youth unemployment, and structural economic issues continue to weigh heavily on public opinion. But in a country long defined by instability, the growing trust in institutions coupled with rising optimism about the country’s direction may signal a slow but meaningful turning point.

As we reflect on more than two decades of change since 2003, this data is not just a snapshot of today, it’s a benchmark of how far Iraq has come, and a reminder of how public opinion continues to shape, and respond to, the country’s evolving reality.